COVID-19 is associated with increased care needs and a decreased likelihood of returning home following a hip fracture: The IMPACT frailty study.

PURPOSE: The primary aim was to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on frailty in patients surviving a hip fracture. Secondary aims were to assess impact of COVID-19 on (i) length of stay (LoS) and post-discharge care needs, (ii) readmissions, and (iii) likelihood of returning to own home. METHODS: This propensity score-matched case-control study was conducted in a single centre between 01/03/20-30/11/21. A 'COVID-positive' group of 68 patients was matched to 141 'COVID-negative' patients. 'Index' and 'current' Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) scores were assigned for frailty at admission and at follow-up. Data were extracted from validated records and included: demographics, injury factors, COVID-19 status, delirium status, discharge destination, and readmissions. For subgroup analysis controlling for vaccination availability, the periods 1 March 2020-30 November 2020 and 1 February 2021-30 November 2021 were considered pre-/post-vaccine periods. RESULTS: Median age was 83.0 years, 155/209 (74.2%) were female and median follow-up was 479 days (interquartile range [IQR] 311). There was an equivalent median increase in CFS in both groups (+1.00 [IQR 1.00-2.00, p = 0.472]). However, adjusted analysis demonstrated COVID-19 was independently associated with a greater magnitude change (Beta coefficient [ß] 0.27, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.00-0.54, p = 0.05). COVID-19 in the post-vaccine availability period was associated with a smaller increase versus pre-vaccine (ß -0.64, 95% CI -1.20 to -0.09, p = 0.023). COVID-19 was independently associated with increased acute LoS (ß 4.40, 95% CI 0.22-8.58, p = 0.039), total LoS (ß 32.87, 95% CI 21.42-44.33, p < 0.001), readmissions (ß 0.71, 95% CI 0.04-1.38, p = 0.039), and a four-fold increased likelihood of pre-fracture home-dwelling patients failing to return home (odds ratio 4.52, 95% CI 2.08-10.34, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Hip fracture patients that survived a COVID-19 infection had increased frailty, longer LoS, more readmissions, and higher care needs. The health and social care burden is likely to be higher than prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings should inform prognostication, discharge-planning, and service design to meet the needs of these patients.

Predicted waiting times for orthopaedic surgery : an urgent need to address the deficit in capacity.

Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(12):890-892.

Socioeconomically-deprived patients suffer hip fractures at a younger age and require more hospital admissions, but early mortality risk is unchanged: The IMPACT Deprivation Study.

INTRODUCTION: Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with multi-morbidity and frailty, but influence on hip fracture outcomes is poorly understood. The primary aim was to investigate the association between deprivation and mortality, and secondary aims were to assess the effects on: (i) age at presentation; (ii) inpatient outcomes, and (iii) post-discharge outcomes. METHOD: This cohort study included all patients aged >50 years admitted with a hip fracture to a high-volume centre between 01 March 2020 and 20 November 2021. Data were collected contemporaneously by specialist auditors and underwent validation using live health records after 180 days follow-up. Variables were demographics including Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, injury and management factors, and outcome measures including length of stay, discharge destination, readmission, and mortality status at 180 days. RESULTS: There were 1822 patients of which 1306/1822 (72%) were female. Deprivation was independently associated with younger age at hip fracture, demonstrating a linear correlation with each deprivation level. The overall mean age was 80.7 years (range 50-102), with the mean age in the most deprived group being 77.2 years (95% CI; 75.7-78.7) versus 82.8 years (95% CI; 82.0-83.5) in the least deprived. Multivariate logistic regression showed no association between deprivation and 30- or 180-day mortality risk. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated no difference between the most deprived versus least deprived (log-rank, p = 0.854). Deprivation had no influence on length of stay, discharge destination, or COVID-19 status, but deprived patients had an increased risk of readmission (OR 1.63, 95% CI [1.18-2.24]; p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: Deprivation showed no linear correlation with early mortality risk (within 180 days of injury), but it was associated with an earlier age at presentation (the most deprived sustained a hip fracture 5.6 years earlier than the least deprived) which may impact overall life expectancy. More deprived patients were more likely to require further acute hospital admissions.

The IMPACT of COVID-19 on trauma & orthopaedic surgery provides lessons for future communicable disease outbreaks : minimum reporting standards, risk scores, fragility trauma services, and global collaboration.

Research into COVID-19 has been rapid in response to the dynamic global situation, which has resulted in heterogeneity of methodology and the communication of information. Adherence to reporting standards would improve the quality of evidence presented in future studies, and may ensure that findings could be interpreted in the context of the wider literature. The COVID-19 pandemic remains a dynamic situation, requiring continued assessment of the disease incidence and monitoring for the emergence of viral variants and their transmissibility, virulence, and susceptibility to vaccine-induced immunity. More work is needed to assess the long-term impact of COVID-19 infection on patients who sustain a hip fracture. The International Multicentre Project Auditing COVID-19 in Trauma & Orthopaedics (IMPACT) formed the largest multicentre collaborative audit conducted in orthopaedics in order to provide an emergency response to a global pandemic, but this was in the context of many vital established audit services being disrupted at an early stage, and it is crucial that these resources are protected during future health crises. Rapid data-sharing between regions should be developed, with wider adoption of the revised 2022 Fragility Fracture Network Minimum Common Data Set for Hip Fracture Audit, and a pragmatic approach to information governance processes in order to facilitate cooperation and meta-audit. This editorial aims to: 1) identify issues related to COVID-19 that require further research; 2) suggest reporting standards for studies of COVID-19 and other communicable diseases; 3) consider the requirement of new risk scores for hip fracture patients; and 4) present the lessons learned from IMPACT in order to inform future collaborative studies. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(6):342-345.

The effect of COVID-19 restrictions on rehabilitation and functional outcome following total hip and knee arthroplasty during the first wave of the pandemic.

AIMS: The primary aim was to assess the patient-perceived effect of restrictions imposed due to COVID-19 on rehabilitation following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Secondary aims were to assess perceived restrictions, influence on mental health, and functional outcome compared to patients undergoing surgery without restriction. METHODS: During February and March 2020, 105 patients underwent THA (n = 48) or TKA (n = 57) and completed preoperative and six-month postoperative assessments. A cohort of 415 patients undergoing surgery in 2019 were used as the control. Patient demographic data, BMI, comorbidities, Oxford Hip Score (OHS) or Knee Score (OKS), and EuroQoL five-domain (EQ-5D) score were collected preoperatively and at six months postoperatively. At six months postoperatively, the 2020 patients were also asked to complete a questionnaire relating to the effect of the social restrictions on their outcome and their mental health. RESULTS: Nearly half of the patients (47.6%, n = 50/105) felt that the restrictions imposed by COVID-19 had limited their rehabilitation and were associated with a significantly worse postoperative OKS (p < 0.001), EQ-5D score (p < 0.001), and lower satisfaction rate (p = 0.019). The reasons for the perceived limited rehabilitation were: being unable to exercise (n = 32, 64%), limited access to physiotherapy (n = 30, 60%), and no face-to-face follow-up (n = 30, 60%). A quarter (n = 26) felt that their mental health had deteriorated postoperatively; 17.1% (n = 18) felt depressed and 26.7% (n = 28) felt anxious. Joint-specific scores and satisfaction for the 2020 group were no different to the 2019 group, however patients undergoing THA in 2020 had a significantly worse postoperative EQ-5D compared to the 2019 cohort (difference 0.106; p = 0.001) which was not observed in patients undergoing TKA. CONCLUSION: Half of the 2020 cohort felt that their rehabilitation had been limited and was associated with worse postoperative Oxford and EQ-5D scores, and lower rates of patient satisfaction, but relative to the 2019 cohort their overall outcomes were no different, with the exception of THA patients who had a worse general health score. Level of evidence: Prospective study, Level 2 Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(6):380-387.

IMPACT-Scot 2 report on COVID-19 in hip fracture patients.

AIMS: The primary aim was to determine the influence of COVID-19 on 30-day mortality following hip fracture. Secondary aims were to determine predictors of COVID-19 status on presentation and later in the admission; the rate of hospital acquired COVID-19; and the predictive value of negative swabs on admission. METHODS: A nationwide multicentre retrospective cohort study was conducted of all patients presenting with a hip fracture to 17 Scottish centres in March and April 2020. Demographics, presentation blood tests, COVID-19 status, Nottingham Hip Fracture Score, management, length of stay, and 30-day mortality were recorded. RESULTS: In all, 78/833 (9.4%) patients were diagnosed with COVID-19. The 30-day survival of patients with COVID-19 was significantly lower than for those without (65.4% vs 91%; p < 0.001). Diagnosis of COVID-19 within seven days of admission (likely community acquired) was independently associated with male sex (odds ratio (OR) 2.34, p = 0.040, confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 5.25) and symptoms of COVID-19 (OR 15.56, CI 6.61 to 36.60, p < 0.001). Diagnosis of COVID-19 made between seven and 30 days of admission to hospital (likely hospital acquired) was independently associated with male sex (OR 1.73, CI 1.05 to 2.87, p = 0.032), Nottingham Hip Fracture Score ≥ 7 (OR 1.91, CI 1.09 to 3.34, p = 0.024), pulmonary disease (OR 1.68, CI 1.00 to 2.81, p = 0.049), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade ≥ 3 (OR 2.37, CI 1.13 to 4.97, p = 0.022), and length of stay ≥ nine days (OR 1.98, CI 1.18 to 3.31, p = 0.009). A total of 38 (58.5%) COVID-19 cases were probably hospital acquired infections. The false-negative rate of a negative swab on admission was 0% in asymptomatic patients and 2.9% in symptomatic patients. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 was independently associated with a three times increased 30-day mortality rate. Nosocomial transmission may have accounted for approximately half of all cases during the first wave of the pandemic. Identification of risk factors for having COVID-19 on admission or acquiring COVID-19 in hospital may guide pathways for isolating or shielding patients respectively. Length of stay was the only modifiable risk factor, which emphasizes the importance of high-quality and timely care in this patient group. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(5):888-897.

The number of patients "worse than death" while waiting for a hip or knee arthroplasty has nearly doubled during the COVID-19 pandemic.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess the quality of life of patients on the waiting list for a total hip (THA) or knee arthroplasty (KA) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondary aims were to assess whether length of time on the waiting list influenced quality of life and rate of deferral of surgery. METHODS: During the study period (August and September 2020) 843 patients (THA n = 394, KA n = 449) from ten centres in the UK reported their EuroQol five dimension (EQ-5D) scores and completed a waiting list questionnaire (2020 group). Patient demographic details, procedure, and date when listed were recorded. Patients scoring less than zero for their EQ-5D score were defined to be in a health state "worse than death" (WTD). Data from a retrospective cohort (January 2014 to September 2017) were used as the control group. RESULTS: The 2020 group had a significantly worse EQ-5D score compared to the control group for both THA (p < 0.001) and KA (p < 0.001). Over one-third (35.0%, n = 138/394) of patients waiting for a THA and nearly a quarter (22.3%, n = 100/449) for KA were in a health state WTD, which was significantly greater than the control group (odds ratio 2.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.83 to 2.93) and 2.08 (95% CI 1.61 to 2.70), respectively; p < 0.001). Over 80% (n = 680/843) of the 2020 group felt that their quality of life had deteriorated while waiting. Each additional month spent on the waiting list was independently associated with a decrease in quality of life (EQ-5D: -0.0135, p = 0.004). There were 117 (13.9%) patients who wished to defer their surgery and the main reason for this was health concerns for themselves and or their family (99.1%, n = 116/117). CONCLUSION: Over one-third of patients waiting for THA and nearly one-quarter waiting for a KA were in a state WTD, which was approaching double that observed prior to the pandemic. Increasing length of time on the waiting list was associated with decreasing quality of life. Level of evidence: Level III retrospective case control study Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(4):672-680.

Elective orthopaedic cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: where are we now, and where are we heading?

AIMS: The primary aim is to estimate the current and potential number of patients on NHS England orthopaedic elective waiting lists by November 2020. The secondary aims are to model recovery strategies; review the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty from National Joint Registry (NJR) data; and assess the cost of returning to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. METHODS: A model of referral, waiting list, and eventual surgery was created and calibrated using historical data from NHS England (April 2017 to March 2020) and was used to investigate the possible consequences of unmet demand resulting from fewer patients entering the treatment pathway and recovery strategies. NJR data were used to estimate the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty by August 2020 and NHS tariff costs were used to calculate the financial burden. RESULTS: By November 2020, the elective waiting list in England is predicted to be between 885,286 and 1,028,733. If reduced hospital capacity is factored into the model, returning to full capacity by November, the waiting list could be as large as 1.4 million. With a 30% increase in productivity, it would take 20 months if there was no hidden burden of unreferred patients, and 48 months if there was a hidden burden, to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. By August 2020, the estimated deficits of hip and knee arthroplasties from NJR data were 18,298 (44.8%) and 16,567 (38.6%), respectively, compared to the same time period in 2019. The cost to clear this black log would be £198,811,335. CONCLUSION: There will be up to 1.4 million patients on elective orthopaedic waiting lists in England by November 2020, approximate three-times the pre-COVID-19 average. There are various strategies for recovery to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers reliant on increasing capacity, but these have substantial cost implications. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(2):103-110.

Population mobility and adult orthopaedic trauma services during the COVID-19 pandemic: fragility fracture provision remains a priority.

AIMS: This study aims to define the epidemiology of trauma presenting to a single centre providing all orthopaedic trauma care for a population of ∼ 900,000 over the first 40 days of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to that presenting over the same period one year earlier. The secondary aim was to compare this with population mobility data obtained from Google. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of consecutive adult (> 13 years) patients with musculoskeletal trauma referred as either in-patients or out-patients over a 40-day period beginning on 5 March 2020, the date of the first reported UK COVID-19 death, was performed. This time period encompassed social distancing measures. This group was compared to a group of patients referred over the same calendar period in 2019 and to publicly available mobility data from Google. RESULTS: Orthopaedic trauma referrals reduced by 42% (1,056 compared to 1,820) during the study period, and by 58% (405 compared to 967) following national lockdown. Outpatient referrals reduced by 44%, and inpatient referrals by 36%, and the number of surgeries performed by 36%. The regional incidence of traumatic injury fell from 5.07 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.79 to 5.35) to 2.94 (95% CI 2.52 to 3.32) per 100,000 population per day. Significant reductions were seen in injuries related to sports and alcohol consumption. No admissions occurred relating to major trauma (Injury Severity Score > 16) or violence against the person. Changes in population mobility and trauma volume from baseline correlated significantly (Pearson's correlation 0.749, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.85, p < 0.001). However, admissions related to fragility fractures remained unchanged compared to the 2019 baseline. CONCLUSION: The profound changes in social behaviour and mobility during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic have directly correlated with a significant decrease in orthopaedic trauma referrals, but fragility fractures remained unaffected and provision for these patients should be maintained.Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:182-189.

The theoretical mortality risk of an asymptomatic patient with a negative SARS-CoV-2 test developing COVID-19 following elective orthopaedic surgery.

AIMS: The risk to patients and healthcare workers of resuming elective orthopaedic surgery following the peak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has been difficult to quantify. This has prompted governing bodies to adopt a cautious approach that may be impractical and financially unsustainable. The lack of evidence has made it impossible for surgeons to give patients an informed perspective of the consequences of elective surgery in the presence of SARS-CoV-2. This study aims to determine, for the UK population, the probability of a patient being admitted with an undetected SARS-CoV-2 infection and their resulting risk of death; taking into consideration the current disease prevalence, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, and preassessment pathway. METHODS: The probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection with a false negative test was calculated using a lower-end RT-PCR sensitivity of 71%, specificity of 95%, and the UK disease prevalence of 0.24% reported in May 2020. Subsequently, a case fatality rate of 20.5% was applied as a worst-case scenario. RESULTS: The probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection with a false negative preoperative test was 0.07% (around 1 in 1,400). The risk of a patient with an undetected infection being admitted for surgery and subsequently dying from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is estimated at approximately 1 in 7,000. However, if an estimate of the current global infection fatality rate (1.04%) is applied, the risk of death would be around 1 in 140,000, at most. This calculation does not take into account the risk of nosocomial infection. Conversely, it does not factor in that patients will also be clinically assessed and asked to self-isolate prior to surgery. CONCLUSION: Our estimation suggests that the risk of patients being inadvertently admitted with an undetected SARS-CoV-2 infection for elective orthopaedic surgery is relatively low. Accordingly, the risk of death following elective orthopaedic surgery is low, even when applying the worst-case fatality rate. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(9):1256-1260.